Florida is considered to be one of the major swing states for this election. This southern state, surrounded by the gulf of Mexico from one side and Atlantic from another, is seen by some to be the most important state in the election, with both candidate focusing their efforts on the beach state in the days running up to the election.
Florida, like the state of Ohio, has been good at mirroring the outcome of the elections, and since 1996, the state has voted for the winning presidential candidate. With its 29 electoral votes, Florida is the biggest swing state which means that winning it can mean a great deal in a tight race.
Current forecasts at FiveThirtyEight show that Clinton is slightly more likely to win Florida, but the situation has been changing between the candidates in the past few days. For Trump, Florida is a must-win state. If Clinton manages to take home the Florida vote, he’s most likely to lose the election. RealClearPolitics is giving Trump a small lead.
Trump has been gaining support in the days leading up to election, but Clinton still has strong backing thanks to her strong performance in the three presidential debates.
Florida has significant Latino population. American Hispanics, making up 16% of registered voters in Florida, have traditionally voted for Democrat. The state’s large Cuban population tend to vote for Republican.
Trump’s divisive comments about immigrants and his plans to build a wall between the US and Mexico have angered many Latino voters.
The most current issue affecting the Cuban voters in particular is the warming Cuba-US relations. Obama’s decision on October 14 to relax the US embargo on Cuba might be a welcomed change to many young Cuban-Americans settled in Florida, but the older generations have a harsher view on Cuba, and are more likely to oppose the new concessions.
Trump has recently announced being against the concessions, which might persuade older Cuban-Americans to vote for him, who want to make a stand against the Cuban dictatorship. Clinton on the other hand is supporting Obama’s relaxing policies, which may end up costing her the Florida vote.