Current forecasts at FiveThirtyEight show Trump as the more likely victor of Iowa state, with a 69.8% chance of winning Iowa’s six electoral votes to Clinton’s 30.2%.
Iowa is considered to be a key swing state in this election. A Midwestern US state with a largely rural white population, Iowa has historically leaned Republican.
Between 1900 and 2012, Iowa has cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 75.86% percent of the time, supporting Republican candidates more often than Democratic candidates.
For the last two elections President Obama won over voters in Iowa, however Clinton looks set to be unable to repeat this performance.
While Clinton may be preferred by the urban voters, Trump’s support proves to be stronger among the rural residences that make up the majority of Iowa.
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